SD12

Anna Caballero (D)
TERM LIMIT: 2026

State Senate '14
Anthony Cannella* (R-Inc) 74,988 60.46%
Shawn K. Bagley (D) 49,039 39.54%
State Senate '18
Anna Caballero (D) 110,386 54.36%
Rob Poythress (R) 92,691 45.64%
Ins. Commisioner '18
Ricardo Lara (D) 105,476 53.97%
Steve Poizner (NPP) 89,957 46.03%
Prop 6 '18 (Gas Tax Repeal)
NO 107,666 53.35%
YES 94,136 46.65%
US Senate '12
Dianne Feinstein* (D-Inc) 121,543 58.97%
Elizabeth Emken (R) 84,551 41.03%
US Senate '16
Kamala D. Harris (D) 104,953 50.49%
Loretta L. Sanchez (D) 102,899 49.51%
US Senate '18
Kevin De Leon (D) 99,078 54.34%
Dianne Feinstein* (D-Inc) 83,242 45.66%
Prop 10 '18 (Rent Control)
NO 131,420 65.45%
YES 69,360 34.55%
President '12
Barack Obama* (D-Inc) 121,469 57.63%
Mitt Romney (R) 84,965 40.31%
Governor '14
Edmund G. Brown (D) 69,755 54.90%
Neel Kashkari (R) 57,294 45.10%
President '16
Hillary Clinton (D) 135,740 57.31%
Donald J. Trump (R) 87,910 37.11%
Governor '18
Gavin Newsom (D) 113,415 55.34%
John H. Cox (R) 91,523 44.66%

Map

Location

Central Valley district encompassing all of the counties of Merced (31% of district voters) and San Benito (8%); eastern Monterey County (22%) including Salinas; and western portions of Stanislaus (17%), Fresno (13%), and Madera (9%) counties. Largest city: Merced.

Overlaps

Fresno County (13.60%) Madera County (11.50%) Merced County (30.05%) Monterey County (22.23%) San Benito County (7.63%) Stanislaus County (14.99%)

AD05 (11.50%) AD21 (45.04%) AD29 (0.06%) AD30 (29.80%) AD31 (13.60%)

SD12 (100.00%)

CD10 (14.99%) CD16 (42.08%) CD20 (29.86%) CD21 (13.07%)

BOE1 (70.14%) BOE2 (29.86%)

Registration

REGISTRATION REPORT DATE: October 19, 2020
TOTAL VOTERS: 408,937

D +18.77%

DEM: 45.44% (185,825)  -- REP: 26.67% (109,063)  -- NPP: 22.21% (90,810) -- OTH: 0.42% (1,730)


     Ethnic voter registration: Latino 48.83%, Asian: 4.55%
     Permanent vote-by-mail voters: 66.47%


Anna Caballero (D)

Born: 1955-04-18

Term 2026

ANNA CABALLERO previously served two terms in the Assembly from 2006 until 2010. In 2010, Caballero gave up her Assembly seat to run for State Senate, but ultimately lost to Anthony Cannella (see SD12). After her defeat, she sought a job with Governor Brown's administration and was appointed secretary of the California Business, Consumer Services and Housing Agency in 2011 until she stepped down in November 2015. Caballero moved to the Salinas Valley in 1979 and worked as a lawyer representing farm workers at California Rural Legal Assistance for three years before she and two of her colleagues formed the law firm of Caballero, Matcham & McCarthy. In 1986, she was appointed to the Salinas Planning Commission and served there for five years before being elected to the Salinas City Council in 1991. In 1998, she was elected Mayor of Salinas, and served in that capacity until her election to the Assembly. She holds a bachelor's in Sociology from UC-San Diego and a JD from UCLA. Her husband, Juan Uranga, is the director for Community Advocacy in Salinas. They have three grown children.  

Organization Year Score
AFSCME 2019 95%
American Civil Liberties Union of Northern CA 2018 85%
American Conservative Union 2018 11%
American Conservative Union (Lifetime) 2018 9%
CA Chamber of Commerce 2019 67%
CA Environmental Justice Association 2018 62%
CA Labor Federation 2019 86%
CA Labor Federation (Lifetime) 2019 89%
CA Manufacturers & Technology Assn 2017 40%
CA Police Chiefs Assn 2017 55%
CA Public Interest Research Group 2017 100%
CA Republican Assembly 2017 6%
CA Teachers Assn 2018 76%
California Environmental Justice Alliance 2019 82%
California Federation of Teachers 2019 73%
California League of Conservation Voters 2019 55%
California League of Conservation Voters (Lifetime) 2019 n/a%
California Pro-Life Council 2010 0%
California School Employees Assn 2009 50%
Capitol Resource Institute 2007 6%
Common Sense Kids Action 2017 100%
Consumer Federation of CA 2017 70%
Consumer Federation of CA (Lifetime) 2017 81%
Courage Campaign 2019 52%
Drug Policy Forum of CA 2007 100%
Equality CA 2019 100%
Gun Owners of CA 2018 F
Health Access 2019 94%
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Assn 2019 0%
Humane Society 2010 86%
League of CA Cities 2017 91%
League of Conservation Voters 2017 78%
League of Conservation Voters (Lifetime) 2017 82%
National Federation of Independent Business 2018 63%
National Rifle Association 2016 0%
Planned Parenthood of CA 2019 100%
Sierra Club CA 2019 75%

REGISTRATION REPORT DATE: October 19, 2020
TOTAL VOTERS: 408,937

D +18.77%

DEM: 45.44% (185,825)  -- REP: 26.67% (109,063)  -- NPP: 22.21% (90,810) -- OTH: 0.42% (1,730)

Past Registration/Turnout

p12: D +15.78% DEM: 147,633 (47.89%) REP: 98,993 (32.11%) NPP: 49,588 (16.08%) TOTAL - 308,290 - TURNOUT: 28.15%
g12: D +14.77% DEM: 150,083 (46.67%) REP: 102,600 (31.90%) NPP: 54,333 (16.89%) TOTAL - 321,610 - TURNOUT: 62.70%
p14: D +13.25% DEM: 142,513 (45.43%) REP: 100,930 (32.18%) NPP: 57,319 (18.27%) TOTAL - 313,683 - TURNOUT: 25.14%
g14: D +13.18% DEM: 141,913 (44.85%) REP: 100,201 (31.67%) NPP: 60,839 (19.23%) TOTAL - 316,437 - TURNOUT: 40.55%
p16: D +15.09% DEM: 144,311 (45.26%) REP: 96,176 (30.17%) NPP: 65,133 (20.43%) TOTAL - 318,830 - TURNOUT: 41.48%
g16: D +17.61% DEM: 161,076 (46.31%) REP: 99,838 (28.70%) NPP: 72,306 (20.79%) TOTAL - 347,850 - TURNOUT: 68.67%
p18: D +18.15% DEM: 154,153 (45.61%) REP: 92,797 (27.46%) NPP: 76,106 (22.52%) TOTAL - 337,955 - TURNOUT: N/A
g18: D +18.36% DEM: 157,986 (44.60%) REP: 92,959 (26.24%) NPP: 87,796 (24.79%) TOTAL - 354,272 - TURNOUT: 58.74%

Census Data (2015 ACS 5-Year Estimate)

Population & Ethnic Statistics


Total Population: 958,862
White: 231,946 (24.20%)
Latino: 634,229 (66.10%)
African-American: 24,273 (2.50%)
Asian: 46,009 (4.80%)

Household Income


Family Households: 204,793 (78.90%), Non-Family Households: 54,838 (21.10%)
Median Household Income: $45,582
Mean Household Income: $60,652
Per-Capita Income: $17,448

Housing


Owner Occupied: 132,978 (51.20%)
Median Value: $188,300
Renter Occupied: 126,653 (48.80%)
Median Rent: $959

Education


Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 11.40%
Graduate Degree: 19,055 (3.40%)

Poverty Level


Population Below Poverty Level: 24.10%
Population Without Health Insurance: 18,698 (6.50%)

District Profile

This district was not altered much because the Redistricting Commission did not want to dilute the Latino population.  It extends from the Salinas Valley east into the Central Valley through a number of counties in order to find the most Latino precincts, largely farm workers who work the most productive agricultural land in the country. 

The Salinas Valley is the setting for many of John Steinbeck’s novels including “Of Mice and Men.”  The Valley is called the “Salad Bowl of the World” because of the large production of salad greens, including lettuce and spinach, along with tomatoes, strawberries and grapes.

Politically this is a highly competitive district. It was drawn to elect a Democrat in 2001 and Democrats make up plurality of the voters, but it continues to send a Republican to Sacramento, first Jeff Denham followed by Canella.  The Democrats have their strongest advantage in the coastal valleys in Monterey and San Benito Counties and in Stanislaus County where there is a large Latino population in southern Modesto. 

Merced County is home to most of the voters in the district.  For a predominantly rural inland county Democrats tend to do quite well here.  It has been represented by a Democrat in Congress and the Assembly for decades, but Republicans have also been victorious here.

Assembly Districts

AD05, AD21, AD29, AD30, AD31

Congressional Districts

CD10, CD16, CD20, CD21

ZIP Codes

93210, 93234, 93242, 93606, 93608, 93609, 93610, 93620, 93622, 93624, 93625, 93627, 93630, 93631, 93635, 93636, 93637, 93638, 93640, 93652, 93654, 93656, 93660, 93662, 93665, 93668, 93706, 93723, 93725, 93901, 93905, 93906, 93907, 93908, 93925, 93926, 93927, 93930, 93954, 93960, 93962, 95004, 95023, 95043, 95045, 95075, 95301, 95303, 95307, 95312, 95313, 95315, 95317, 95322, 95324, 95326, 95333, 95334, 95340, 95341, 95348, 95351, 95354, 95357, 95358, 95360, 95363, 95365, 95369, 95374, 95380, 95385, 95387, 95388

Campaign 2018

Election Results

June Top-Two Primary
Anna Caballero D 46970 43.37%
Rob Poythress R 28512 26.32%
Johnny Tacherra R 24088 22.24%
Daniel Parra D 8740 8.07%
November General Election
Anna Caballero D 110386 54.36%
Rob Poythress R 92691 45.64%

Analysis

Incumbent Republican Anthony Cannella was termed out, opening up a competitive seat in a district with an 18-point Democratic registration advantage. AD30 Assemblymember Anna Caballero was the top vote-getter in the primary, winning 43.37%. Caballero raised over $1.1 million ahead of the primary, with the CA Democratic Party contributing $400,000. The second spot in the runoff went to Republican Rob Poythress, a Madera County Supervisor and farmer/business owner. Poythress raised $582,015 ahead of the primary and received 26.32% of the vote. Poythress benefited from $180,475 in supportive independent expenditures, with Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class, an IE funded by the petroleum industry,, spending $144,400, and the CA Chamber of Commerce's JOBSPAC spending an additional $36,075. The number three spot went to perennial Republican candidate Johnny Tacherra, a dairy farmer who raised $85,885 and finished with 22.24%. Democrat Daniel Parra, a Fowler City Councilman, finished in 4th place with 8.07%.

Democrats lost their supermajority in the legislature after Republicans picked off SD29 Democrat Josh Newman in a June 2018 recall, and all eyes were on Cannella's seat as ground zero in the battle to get it back. After the primary, this was, by far, the biggest target for both Republicans and Democrats. Caballero's campaign received an additional $2.66 million in support ($2.28 million from the state party and $380,000 from county committees), and Poythress's campaign received $1.9 million ($1.83 million from the state GOP and another $70,000 from county Republican committees). Poythress was endorsed by Parra and another Democrat who ran as a write-in soon after the primary.

Outside spending was also a factor in the general election, with the CA GOP making close to $1 million in IEs in support of Poythress. He received additional support from the CA Chamber of Commerce's JobsPAC, which spent $177,000 opposing Caballero and $33,000 supporting Poythress. Nine other groups joined the fray to back Caballero, with an IE funded by SEIU ($252,000) on one side of the spectrum and the moderate-boosting Californians for Jobs and a Strong Economy ($127,000) on the other. 

On election night, Caballero was narrowly ahead by a little over 1,000 votes, but, as was the case in every other seriously contested race, the ballots counted post-election broke a decisive 59.3%/40.7% in her favor, and her final margin was over 17,000 votes, good for a 54.4%/45.6% win. 


Democratic Party Pre-Endorsement Conference Endorsement (Primary): Caballero, Anna
Democratic Party Primary Endorsement: Caballero, Anna

Financials

CMTE RAISED LAST SINCE LIFETIME RAISED SPENT LAST LIFETIME SPENT CASH ON HAND PERIOD ENDING
ALEJO FOR SENATE 2018; LUIS $0 $0 $256,428 $1,396 $258,415 $0 2020-02-19
BRAZIL FOR STATE SENATE 2018, DENNIS $100 $0 $11,384 $231 $104,487 $0 2018-12-31
CABALLERO FOR SENATE 2018: ANNA $704,213 $0 $4,466,112 $847,349 $4,470,583 $0 2018-12-31
POYTHRESS FOR SENATE 2018 $488,241 $0 $3,338,979 $726,758 $3,241,283 $0 2018-12-13
ROBINSON FOR STATE SENATE 2018; FRIENDS OF DEREK $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TACHERRA FOR SENATE 2018 $0 $0 $85,885 $3,454 $87,433 $0 2018-12-31
PARRA FOR SENATE 2018; DANIEL $9,857 $0 $94,062 $961 $84,678 $0 2020-06-30

Candidate Filing Status

NAME PARTY SIL ISSUE SIL FILE NOM ISSUE NOM FILE COUNTY
Dennis Brazil D 2018-01-09 2018-03-09 2018-03-09 MERCED
Anna Caballero D 2018-02-20 2018-03-02 MONTEREY
Daniel Parra D 2018-01-31 2018-02-07 2018-03-09 2018-03-09 FRESNO
Robert Poythress R 2018-02-20 2018-02-28 MADERA
Johnny Tacherra R 2017-12-14 2018-02-05 2018-03-08 2018-03-08 MERCED

Primary Election - June 5, 2018

CANDIDATE NAME PARTY BALLOT DESCRIPTION
Anna Caballero D California State Assemblywoman
Daniel Parra D Councilman, City of Fowler
Rob Poythress R Farmer/Business Owner
Johnny Tacherra R Dairy Farmer

November 6th General Election Results

SD12

354,217 Registered Voters (2018-10-22)
D: 157,986 (44.60%) | R: 92,959 (26.24%) | NPP: 87,796 (24.79%)

D +18.36%

676 of 676 precincts in (0 added)

203,077 votes cast (36 added)
57.33% Voter Turnout

NAME PARTY VOTES Δ % Rank Last Votes Behind
Anna Caballero
California State Assemblywoman
DEM 110,386 +19 54.36% 1 1
Rob Poythress
Farmer/Business Owner
REP 92,691 +17 45.64% 2 2 -17,695

Candidates

ANNA CABALLERO (D)

ANNA CABALLERO previously served two terms in the Assembly from 2006 until 2010. In 2010, Caballero gave up her Assembly seat to run for State Senate, but ultimately lost to Anthony Cannella (see SD12). After her defeat, she sought a job with Governor Brown's administration and was appointed secretary of the California Business, Consumer Services and Housing Agency in 2011 until she stepped down in November 2015. Caballero moved to the Salinas Valley in 1979 and worked as a lawyer representing farm workers at California Rural Legal Assistance for three years before she and two of her colleagues formed the law firm of Caballero, Matcham & McCarthy. In 1986, she was appointed to the Salinas Planning Commission and served there for five years before being elected to the Salinas City Council in 1991. In 1998, she was elected Mayor of Salinas, and served in that capacity until her election to the Assembly. She holds a bachelor's in Sociology from UC-San Diego and a JD from UCLA. Her husband, Juan Uranga, is the director for Community Advocacy in Salinas. They have three grown children.  

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID
DANIEL PARRA (D)

DANIEL PARRA (D) was first elected to the Fowler City Council in 2008, after previously running unsuccessfully in 2006. He was easily re-elected in 2012 and again in 2016. In 2014, he unsuccessfully ran for Fresno County Supervisor, losing to Buddy Mendes in a lopsided 62.3%/37.5% November runoff. He filed to challenge CA21 Republican David Valadao in the 2016 campaign, but his poor fundraising throughout 2015 prompted local Democrats to push him aside. Parra remained in the race and ultimately finished a close 3rd in the June primary. Raised in the Central Valley in the small community of Parlier, he enlisted in the USAF in 1985. After being honorably discharged, he moved to Fowler, and has worked as a Computer Systems Analyst at Northrop Grumman's Lemoore Naval Air Station for over twenty years. He holds a bachelor's in Business Administration and a masters in Public Administration, both from National University, and holds a Senior Executives in State and Local Government Certificate from Harvard's Kennedy School of Business. He resides in Fowler with his wife, Sandra. They have two children.

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID
JOHNNY TACHERRA (R)

JOHNNY TACHERRA (R) previously ran in 2014 and 2016 vs CD16 Democratic Rep Jim Costa, falling just 1,334 votes shy of unseating Costa in 2014. In the more inhospitable 2016 climate, Tacherra was defeated 58/42. Born and raised in Fresno County, Tacherra is a third generation dairy farmer of Portuguese descent. The family dairy (Morning Star Dairy) milks over 1000 head of Holstein cattle and farms hay, oats, wheat, corn, several winter forages and pomegranates. For several years Tacherra has lobbied in Washington D.C. on behalf of the dairy industry. He and his wife, Lisa Marie, have four children. They reside in Burrel.

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID
ROBERT L. POYTHRESS (R)

ROB POYTHRESS (R) was elected to the Madera County Board of Supervisors in 2016, unseating first term incumbent Rick Farinelli 62.46%/37.07% in the June Primary to win outright. He previously was elected to the Madera City Council in 2004, winning re-election in 2008. In 2012, he was elected as the first elected Mayor in the City of Madera through 2016. A native Maderan, he has been in the banking industry since 1979. He is currently Vice President and Manager of Citzen's Business Bank in Madera, where he has worked since 2005. He is also a partner in Teco hardware and Poythress Farms. He holds a bachelor's in Agricultural Business Management from California Polytechnic State University-San Luis Obispo, and holds a graduate degree from Pacific Coast Banking School at the University of Washington. He resides in Madera with his wife, Carol. They have three children.

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID

Campaign Ads

Table ( + Caballero)
campaign ad From Anna Caballero

Rob Poythress Has a Plan ( + Poythress)
campaign ad From Rob Poythress

Water ( + Poythress)
campaign ad From Rob Poythress

Campaign 2014

Election Results

June Top-Two Primary
Anthony Cannella R-Inc 47551 63.77%
Shawn Bagley D 27017 36.23%
November General Election
Anthony Cannella R-Inc 74988 60.46%
Shawn Bagley D 49039 39.54%

Analysis

Cannella and Shawn Bagley, a produce broker and Democratic Party activist, were the only candidates running in the June Primary. By a wide margin, Cannella outpolled Bagley 64% to 36%.

Cannella found himself seeking reelection in a district that has a solid Democratic bias, though Cooley and Fiorina narrowly outpolled their Democratic opponents here in 2010. However, the Democratic leadership decided not to play in this race and Cannella was one of a very small group of Republicans who was endorsed by the CA Labor Federation.

Bagley ended up making no more than a token effort. October finance reports show him spending $57,000, while Cannella spent just over $650,000, with over $840,000 cash on hand.

Cannella won the race with 60.5%, outpolling Gov. Brown, who carried the district with 55% of the vote.

Campaign consultant: Jim Nygren; polling: Moore Information

Financials

CMTE RAISED LAST SINCE LIFETIME RAISED SPENT LAST LIFETIME SPENT CASH ON HAND PERIOD ENDING
BAGLEY FOR SENATE 2014 $0 $0 $63,298 $2,585 $64,500 $0 2015-02-26
CANNELLA FOR SENATE 2014 $0 $0 $1,884,770 $78,282 $2,010,013 $0 2018-12-31

Candidates

ANTHONY JOSEPH CANNELLA (R)

ANTHONY CANNELLAthe son of former Democratic Asm. Sal Cannella, is  a graduate of Ceres High School (1987) and has a bachelor’s in Civil Engineering from UC Davis. He and his business partners operate NorthStar Engineering Group, which provides public and private entities with a variety of engineering, design and survey services. Cannella was elected to the Ceres City Council in 2003, serving until his election to the Senate in 2010.  He and his wife, Julie, have three children. 

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID
SHAWN BAGLEY (D)

SHAWN K. BAGLEY is a produce broker, Monterey County Democratic Party activist and member of the Democratic National Committee. Bagley also served as a gubernatorial appointee to the Monterey County Fair Board. He and his wife, Marjetka, have two adult children and five grandchildren. They reside in the Salinas area.

AMOUNT COMMITTEE FPPC ID
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